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The Learning Path of the Hidden Economy:Tax and Growth Effects in New Zealand




This paper considers the "learning curve" relationship between the aggregate tax rate and the relative size of the hidden economy in New Zealand. Some simple non-linear models are estimated so that the effects of changes in the effective tax rate on the underground economy can be simulated. We find that over half of the hidden activity in New Zealand is a learned response to changing opportunities and constraints in fiscal policy, but this amount varies over the business cycle. A zero tax rate permits us to discover the "natural rate" of underground and criminal activity. Implications are drawn for taxation policy in that country.

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  • David E. A. Giles, & Patrick J. Caragata, 1998. "The Learning Path of the Hidden Economy:Tax and Growth Effects in New Zealand," Econometrics Working Papers 9805, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:9805 Note: ISSN 1485-6441. This is a revised version of N.Z. Inland Revenue Department Working Paper No. 21, December 1996.

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    20. repec:syd:wpaper:2001-2 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. David Giles & Lindsay Tedds & Gugsa Werkneh, 2002. "The Canadian underground and measured economies: Granger causality results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2347-2352.
    2. David E.A. Giles, 1998. "The Underground Economy: Minimizing the Size of Government," Department Discussion Papers 9801, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    3. Lindsay M. Tedds & David E. A. Giles, 2000. "Modelling the Underground Economies in Canada and New Zealand: A Comparative Analysis," Econometrics Working Papers 0003, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    4. Rahman, Md Saifur & Junsheng, Ha & Shahari, Farihana & Aslam, Mohamed & Masud, Muhammad Mehedi & Banna, Hasanul & Liya, Ma, 2015. "Long-run relationship between sectoral productivity and energy consumption in Malaysia: An aggregated and disaggregated viewpoint," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 436-445.

    More about this item


    Hidden Economy; Underground Economy; Tax Evasion; Tax Gap;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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