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Monte Carlo derivative pricing with partial information in a class of doubly stochastic Poisson processes with marks

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Centanni

    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

  • Marco Minozzo

    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

Abstract

To model intraday stock price movements we propose a class of marked doubly stochastic Poisson processes, whose intensity process can be interpreted in terms of the effect of information release on market activity. Assuming a partial information setting in which market agents are restricted to observe only the price process, a filtering algorithm is applied to compute, by Monte Carlo approximation, contingent claim prices, when the dynamics of the price process is given under a martingale measure. In particular, conditions for the existence of the minimal martingale measure Q are derived, and properties of the model under Q are studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Centanni & Marco Minozzo, 2010. "Monte Carlo derivative pricing with partial information in a class of doubly stochastic Poisson processes with marks," Working Papers 22/2010, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:22/2010
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    Keywords

    Minimal martingale measure; News arrival; Marked point process; Nonlinear filtering; Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo; Ultra high frequency data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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