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Public debt and economic growth nexus in the Euro area: A dynamic panel ARDL approach

Author

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  • Chirwa, Themba G.
  • Odhiambo, Nicholas M.

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between public debt and economic growth using panel data from 10 European countries. Using a panel ARDL approach, the results show that public debt, government consumption, and the real exchange rate are negatively associated with economic growth in both the short and the long run. Furthermore, investment and the real interest rate were found to be positively associated with economic growth in both the short and the long run. Inflation and trade openness were found to have mixed results: both were negatively associated with economic growth in the long run while in the short run the relationship was positive and consistent across groups with a few exceptions. Second, the study results also showed that debt is nonlinear at the 70% threshold only in the long run, while in the short run the results were consistently negative and across groups. The study results have significant policy implications for the Stability and Growth Pact of the Euro area. It is recommended that member states should ensure fiscal sustainability by balancing their fiscal budgets to effectively reduce the accumulation of public debt as well as implementing structural reforms that will improve the efficiency of investment as well as macroeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Chirwa, Themba G. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2017. "Public debt and economic growth nexus in the Euro area: A dynamic panel ARDL approach," Working Papers 23477, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uza:wpaper:23477
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    Cited by:

    1. Oguzhan Bozatli & Seref Can Serin & Murat Demir, 2024. "The causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from time and frequency domain approaches," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Ndivhuho Eunice Ratombo & Itumeleng Pleasure Mongale, 2024. "Establishing the Effects of Internet Users on Inclusive Growth for the SADC Members States: Panel ARDL Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(4), pages 316-329, July.
    3. Yu HSING, 2020. "On the relationship between economic growth and government debt for Bulgaria. Test of the Reinhart-Rogoff hypothesis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 187-194, Winter.
    4. Mihaela Onofrei & Ionel Bostan & Bogdan Narcis Firtescu & Angela Roman & Valentina Diana Rusu, 2022. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in EU Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-23, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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