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The Economic Plausibility of Strict Local Martingales in Financial Modelling

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Abstract

The context for this article is a continuous financial market consisting of a risk-free savings account and a single non-dividend-paying risky security. We present two concrete models for this market, in which strict local martingales play decisive roles. The first admits an equivalent risk-neutral probability measure under which the discounted price of the risky security is a strict local martingale, while the second model does not even admit an equivalent risk-neutral probability measure, since the putative density process for such a measure is itself a strict local martingale. We highlight a number of apparent anomalies associated with both models that may offend the sensibilities of the classically-educated reader. However, we also demonstrate that these issues are easily resolved if one thinks economically about the models in the right way. In particular, we argue that there is nothing inherently objectionable about either model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hardy Hulley, 2010. "The Economic Plausibility of Strict Local Martingales in Financial Modelling," Research Paper Series 279, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:279
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    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/qfr-archive-03/QFR-rp279.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Kardaras, Constantinos & Kreher, Dörte & Nikeghbali, Ashkan, 2015. "Strict local martingales and bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64967, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Claudio Fontana & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2012. "Diffusion-based models for financial markets without martingale measures," Papers 1209.4449, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
    3. Eckhard Platen & David Taylor, 2016. "Loading Pricing of Catastrophe Bonds and Other Long-Dated, Insurance-Type Contracts," Papers 1610.09875, arXiv.org.
    4. Philip Protter & Aditi Dandapani, 2019. "Strict Local Martingales and the Khasminskii test for Explosions," Papers 1903.02383, arXiv.org.
    5. Hardy Hulley & Johannes Ruf, 2019. "Weak Tail Conditions for Local Martingales," Published Paper Series 2019-2, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Protter, Philip, 2015. "Strict local martingales with jumps," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(4), pages 1352-1367.
    7. Dandapani, Aditi & Protter, Philip, 2022. "Strict local martingales and the Khasminskii test for explosions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 716-728.
    8. Baldeaux, Jan & Ignatieva, Katja & Platen, Eckhard, 2018. "Detecting money market bubbles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 369-379.
    9. Constantinos Kardaras, 2012. "Valuation and parities for exchange options," Papers 1206.3220, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2014.
    10. Ke Du & Eckhard Platen, 2011. "Three-Benchmarked Risk Minimization for Jump Diffusion Markets," Research Paper Series 296, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    11. Kardaras, Constantinos, 2015. "Valuation and parities for exchange options," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65535, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Martin HERDEGEN & Martin SCHWEIZER, 2016. "Economically Consistent Valuations and Put-Call Parity," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-02, Swiss Finance Institute.
    13. Johannes Ruf & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2013. "A Systematic Approach to Constructing Market Models With Arbitrage," Papers 1309.1988, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2013.
    14. Jacopo Mancin & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2015. "On the Existence of Martingale Measures in Jump Diffusion Market Models," Papers 1511.08349, arXiv.org.
    15. Baldeaux, Jan & Grasselli, Martino & Platen, Eckhard, 2015. "Pricing currency derivatives under the benchmark approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 34-48.
    16. Martin Herdegen & Martin Schweizer, 2018. "Semi‐efficient valuations and put‐call parity," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 1061-1106, October.
    17. Roseline Bilina Falafala & Robert A. Jarrow & Philip Protter, 2016. "Relative asset price bubbles," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 135-160, May.

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