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A Structural Analysis of Growth and Poverty in the Short-Term

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Abstract

"Growth is good for the poor" is a ubíquítous statement and one generally backed by theory, research and history. In the long-run, growth reduces poverty. Yet, growth in output - per se - ís neíther a necessary nor a sutficíent condítíon for poverty reductíon, especíally in the short-term And the short-term matters a great deal to tbc poor. `Che paper uses a number of parametric, non-parametric and decomposition methodologies to assess regional changes in output, income, poverty and inequality in one transition economy which experienced fast growth and fast poverty reductìon over a short period of time. Tbc purpose is to test what is behind this simple covariance that led observers to conclude that output growth deternined poverty reduction. Combining macro e micro regional data, we find a very small trickle down effect of output growth on household incomes and no evidence that output growth is correlated with poverty reduction. We find ínstead that a modest growth in household íncome combined with a pro-poor distribution of such growth explains well poverty reduction. Effective shorterm poverty reductíon polícies should focus on pro-poor actions where pro-poor means making sure that marginal changes among the incomes of the poor outperform marginaI changes among theincomes of the rich.

Suggested Citation

  • Verme Paolo, 2007. "A Structural Analysis of Growth and Poverty in the Short-Term," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 200705, University of Turin.
  • Handle: RePEc:uto:dipeco:200705
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    Cited by:

    1. Bergh, Andreas & Nilsson, Therese, 2014. "Is Globalization Reducing Absolute Poverty?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 42-61.
    2. Bergh, Andreas & Nilsson, Therese, 2011. "Globalization and Absolute Poverty – A Panel Data Study," Working Paper Series 862, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    3. Brück, Tilman & Esenaliev, Damir & Kroeger, Antje & Kudebayeva, Alma & Mirkasimov, Bakhrom & Steiner, Susan, 2014. "Household survey data for research on well-being and behavior in Central Asia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 819-835.
    4. Verme, Paolo, 2009. "Happiness, Deprivation and the Alter Ego," IRISS Working Paper Series 2009-18, IRISS at CEPS/INSTEAD.
    5. Mario D. TELLO, 2015. "Poverty, Growth, Structural Change and Social Inclusion Programs: A Regional Analysis of Peru," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(2), pages 59-74.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies

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