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Capital Flows and Exchange Rates An empirical Analysis

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  • Gregorios Siourounis

Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between capital flows and nominal ex-change rates for five major countries. It is well known that no theory based on current account or interest rates has ever been shown to work empirically at short to medium horizons. Recent international finance theory, however, suggests that currencies are influenced by capital flows as much as by current account balances and log-term interest rates. Using unrestricted VAR's we document the following: a) Incorporating net cross-border equity flows into linear exchange rate models can improve their in-sample performance. Using net cross-border bond flows, however, has no such effect; b) Positive shocks to home equity returns (relative to foreign markets) are associated with short-run home currency appreciation and equity inflow. Positive shocks to home interest rates (relative to foreign countries) cause currency movements that are not consistent with uncovered interest rate parity (UIP); c) An equity-augmented linear model supports exchange rate predictability and outperforms a random walk in several cases. Such superior forecast performance, however, depends on the exchange rate and the forecast horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregorios Siourounis, 2008. "Capital Flows and Exchange Rates An empirical Analysis," Working Papers 00028, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uop:wpaper:00028
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2010. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 100-112, January.
    3. Thomas Nitschka, 2007. "Consumption growth, uncovered equity parity and the cross-section of returns on foreign currencies," IEW - Working Papers 340, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    4. Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 508-547, December.
    5. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    6. Thomas Nitschka, 2009. "Momentum in stock market returns, risk premia on foreign currencies and international financial integration," IEW - Working Papers 405, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    7. Wei Sun & Lian An, 2011. "Dynamics of floating exchange rate: how important are capital flows relative to macroeconomic fundamentals?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 456-472, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Net equity flows; net bond flows; equity returns; interest rates; and nominal exchange rates.;

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