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The Structural Outcomes of Investment Surges

Author

Listed:
  • Mateo Hoyos

    (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Emiliano Libman

    (University of General San Martín)

  • Arslan Razmi

    (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)

Abstract

We study the extent to which countries undergo structural change during and after episodes of sustained investment surges. In particular, we explore the evolution of trade flows, considering (i) exports sophistication or complexity, (ii) exports diversification, and (iii) capital goods imports. Using the episodes identified by Libman et al. (2019), we document the heterogeneous nature of these episodes and find that, while imports of capital goods increase, they are not systematically related to changes in sophistication, complexity and diversification of exports, at least for the available sample of 130 episodes over the period 1962-2014. High investment may often be a necessary but not sufficient condition for structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Mateo Hoyos & Emiliano Libman & Arslan Razmi, 2021. "The Structural Outcomes of Investment Surges," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2021-09, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2021-09
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    File URL: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/306/
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    Cited by:

    1. Guilherme Klein Martins, 2025. "Capital nationality and long-run economic development," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 49(1), pages 95-125.
    2. Tommy Chrimes & Bram Gootjes & M. Ayhan Kose & Collette Wheeler, 2024. "The Great Reversal," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 41403, April.
    3. Luca TAUSCH & Guilherme MAGACHO, 2024. "Challenges in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy for Developing Countries: Estimating Capital-Use Matrices and Imported Needs," Working Paper 3f15bd28-99b0-42ff-863c-4, Agence française de développement.
    4. de Haan, Jakob & Stamm, Kersten & Yu, Shu, 2025. "Investment accelerations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-210.
    5. Jakob de Haan & Kersten Stamm & Shu Yu, 2024. "Drivers of Investment Accelerations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11100, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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