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A New Approach to Studying Unemployment and Economic Growth Relationship

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  • Sylvina Porras

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

  • Mauricio Suárez Cal

    (Inter-American Development Bank)

Abstract

Okun’s law, which examines the relationship between unemployment and economic growth, has been the subject of extensive research since Arthur Okun’s seminal contribution, which relied on three single-equation models: the differences model, the gap model, and the trend-adjusted elasticity model. The Okun coefficient derived from these single-equation approaches summarizes in a single value the aggregate effects of economic growth on different labor market variables, but does not allow one to identify what's behind the law. This article proposes an alternative framework for studying the unemployment–growth relationship by estimating a multi-equation system that captures the dynamics of the labor market, identifying the differentiated effects of economic growth on different labor market variables. Through a simulation exercise, this method shows the specific channels through which economic growth affects unemployment, thereby providing valuable insights for the design of more effective public policies. We apply this new approach to Uruguay, a country that exhibits a statistically significant Okun relationship, though one that is relatively weak compared with advanced economies. The results show that economic growth has a direct impact on employment, labor supply, and wages, and through wages, it has an indirect impact on employment and labor supply. The combination of all these effects is summarized in a weak reaction of unemployment to changes in economic activity, and this is because in that country, labor supply exhibits strong procyclical behavior, which partially reduces the strong reaction of employment to economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvina Porras & Mauricio Suárez Cal, 2026. "A New Approach to Studying Unemployment and Economic Growth Relationship," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 26-10, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-10-26
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/56346
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sandrine Cazes & Sher Verick & Fares Al Hussami, 2013. "Why did unemployment respond so differently to the global financial crisis across countries? Insights from Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, December.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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