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Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices

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  • Olga Bondarenko

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The models enable the endogenous estimation of price trends, based on the observed movements in the underlying variables. This framework provides insights into how involuntary reductions in Ukraine's global market presence, triggered by russia's invasion, could have affected trend prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Olga Bondarenko, 2025. "Shockwaves from Ukraine: Trends and Gaps in Agricultural Commodity Prices," Working Papers 02/2025, National Bank of Ukraine.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:wpaper:02/2025
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    File URL: https://bank.gov.ua/admin_uploads/article/2025-02_WP_Bondarenko.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arroyo Marioli,Francisco & Khadan,Jeetendra & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Yamazaki,Takefumi, 2023. "Forecasting Industrial Commodity Prices : Literature Review and a Model Suite," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10611, The World Bank.
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      JEL classification:

      • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
      • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
      • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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