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Crímen y disuasión evidencia desde un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas para las regiones de Chile

Listed author(s):
  • Jorge Rivera
  • Javier Nuñez
  • Javier Villavicencio

En este trabajo se desarrolla y estima un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas que explica la criminalidad en Chile a nivel regional en el periodo 1988 – 2000 para varias categorías de delitos. El modelo innova en abordar diversos problemas de endogeneidad presentes en la determinación del crimen. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que: (1) los diversos tipos de delitos analizados tienen determinantes socioeconómicos heterogéneos, (2) las fuentes y oportunidades de ingreso legal e ilegal, incluido el desempleo, afectan la ocurrencia de varias categorías de delitos, (3) existe una doble causalidad separable entre la eficiencia policial y la criminalidad, (4) la eficiencia del poder judicial posee un efecto disuasivo importante, (5) aumentos en dotación policial presentan dos efectos contrapuestos sobre la tasa de criminalidad, por medio de la disuasión de crimen y la mayor propensión a denunciar delitos por parte de los afectados y (6) la asignación local de recursos policiales es endógena a la criminalidad observada en periodos previos. Estos resultados sugieren que el adecuado estudio de los determinantes de la criminalidad y el diseño de políticas públicas para combatirla requieren necesariamente de un enfoque que permita abordar y separar los diversos y complejos efectos que toman parte en la determinación del crimen, tales como los examinados en este trabajo.

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Paper provided by University of Chile, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number wp203.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
Handle: RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp203
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