IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/elt/journl/v71y2004i284p811-846.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crimen y disuasión. Evidencia desde un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas para las regiones de Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Rivera, Jorge

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile)

  • Núñez, Javier

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile)

  • Villavicencio, Xavier

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile)

Abstract

This paper develops a model of simultaneous equations to study the determinants of various types of crime at a regional level in Chile between 1988 and 2000. This paper innovates by addressing various endogenous effects that are present in the determination of crime. The main results are the following; i) the different types of crime have heterogeneous determinants; ii) the predicted effects of the opportunities for legal/illegal income are validated for several types of crime, including the rate of unemployment; iii) there is a double causality between the level of crime and police efficiency, which provides evidence in favour of the “police congestion hypothesis”; iv) increases in police force have two distinct effects on the observed level of crime; a positive effect due to increases in crime reporting, and a negative effect due to its deterrent effect and v) the local allocation of police resources is a function of past crime levels. These results suggest that a proper analysis of the eterminants of crime and the design of public policies must address and disentangle the various and complex effects that take part in the determination of crime, such as those analysed in this paper.// En este trabajo se desarrolla y estima un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas que explica la criminalidad en Chile por regiones en el periodo 1988-2000 para varias categorías de delitos. El modelo desarrollado innova al abordar diversos problemas de endogeneidad presentes en la determinación del crimen. Los resultados obtenidos indican que: i) los diversos tipos de delitos analizados tienen determinantes socioeconómicos heterogéneos; ii) las fuentes y oportunidades de ingreso legal e ilegal, incluido el desempleo, afectan la comisión de varios delitos; iii) existe una doble causalidad separable entre la eficiencia policial y la criminalidad, congruente con la hipótesis de “congestión” del esfuerzo policial; iv) aumentos en la dotación policial presentan dos efectos contrapuestos en la tasa de criminalidad, por medio de la disuasión de crimen y la mayor propensión a denunciar delitos por parte de los afectados, y v) la asignación local de recursos policiales es endógena a la criminalidad observada en periodos previos. Estos resultados sugieren que el adecuado estudio de los determinantes de la criminalidad y la elaboración de políticas públicas para combatirla requieren forzosamente un enfoque que permita abordar y separar los diversos y complejos efectos que forman parte en la determinación del crimen, como los examinados en este trabajo.

Suggested Citation

  • Rivera, Jorge & Núñez, Javier & Villavicencio, Xavier, 2004. "Crimen y disuasión. Evidencia desde un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas para las regiones de Chile," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(284), pages 811-846, octubre-d.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:71:y:2004:i:284:p:811-846
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Catalina Gómez & Hermilson Velásquez & Andrés Julián Rendón & Santiago Bohórquez, 2014. "Crime in Colombia: More law enforcement or more justice?," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 011998, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    criminalidad; disuasión; ecuaciones simultáneas; determinantes del crimen;

    JEL classification:

    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:71:y:2004:i:284:p:811-846. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rosa María González Mejía). General contact details of provider: http://www.fondodeculturaeconomica.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.