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Crimen y disuasión. Evidencia desde un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas para las regiones de Chile


  • Rivera, Jorge

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile)

  • Núñez, Javier

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile)

  • Villavicencio, Xavier

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile)


This paper develops a model of simultaneous equations to study the determinants of various types of crime at a regional level in Chile between 1988 and 2000. This paper innovates by addressing various endogenous effects that are present in the determination of crime. The main results are the following; i) the different types of crime have heterogeneous determinants; ii) the predicted effects of the opportunities for legal/illegal income are validated for several types of crime, including the rate of unemployment; iii) there is a double causality between the level of crime and police efficiency, which provides evidence in favour of the “police congestion hypothesis”; iv) increases in police force have two distinct effects on the observed level of crime; a positive effect due to increases in crime reporting, and a negative effect due to its deterrent effect and v) the local allocation of police resources is a function of past crime levels. These results suggest that a proper analysis of the eterminants of crime and the design of public policies must address and disentangle the various and complex effects that take part in the determination of crime, such as those analysed in this paper.// En este trabajo se desarrolla y estima un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas que explica la criminalidad en Chile por regiones en el periodo 1988-2000 para varias categorías de delitos. El modelo desarrollado innova al abordar diversos problemas de endogeneidad presentes en la determinación del crimen. Los resultados obtenidos indican que: i) los diversos tipos de delitos analizados tienen determinantes socioeconómicos heterogéneos; ii) las fuentes y oportunidades de ingreso legal e ilegal, incluido el desempleo, afectan la comisión de varios delitos; iii) existe una doble causalidad separable entre la eficiencia policial y la criminalidad, congruente con la hipótesis de “congestión” del esfuerzo policial; iv) aumentos en la dotación policial presentan dos efectos contrapuestos en la tasa de criminalidad, por medio de la disuasión de crimen y la mayor propensión a denunciar delitos por parte de los afectados, y v) la asignación local de recursos policiales es endógena a la criminalidad observada en periodos previos. Estos resultados sugieren que el adecuado estudio de los determinantes de la criminalidad y la elaboración de políticas públicas para combatirla requieren forzosamente un enfoque que permita abordar y separar los diversos y complejos efectos que forman parte en la determinación del crimen, como los examinados en este trabajo.

Suggested Citation

  • Rivera, Jorge & Núñez, Javier & Villavicencio, Xavier, 2004. "Crimen y disuasión. Evidencia desde un modelo de ecuaciones simultáneas para las regiones de Chile," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(284), pages 811-846, octubre-d.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:71:y:2004:i:284:p:811-846

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    Cited by:

    1. Catalina Gómez & Hermilson Velásquez & Andrés Julián Rendón & Santiago Bohórquez, 2014. "Crime in Colombia: More law enforcement or more justice?," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 011998, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.

    More about this item


    criminalidad; disuasión; ecuaciones simultáneas; determinantes del crimen;

    JEL classification:

    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law


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