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Machine Learning Based Semiparametric Time Series Conditional Variance: Estimation and Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Justin Dang

    (UCR)

  • Aman Ullah

    (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new combined semiparametric estimator of the conditional variance that takes the product of a parametric estimator and a nonparametric estimator based on machine learning. A popular kernel based machine learning algorithm, known as kernel regularized least squares estimator, is used to estimate the nonparametric component. We discuss how to estimate the semiparametric estimator using real data and how to use this estimator to make forecasts for the conditional variance.Simulations are conducted to show the dominance of the proposed estimator in terms of mean squared error. An empirical application using S&P 500 daily returns is analyzed, and the semiparametric estimator effectively forecasts future volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Dang & Aman Ullah, 2021. "Machine Learning Based Semiparametric Time Series Conditional Variance: Estimation and Forecasting," Working Papers 202204, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucr:wpaper:202204
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mishra, Santosh & Su, Liangjun & Ullah, Aman, 2010. "Semiparametric Estimator of Time Series Conditional Variance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(2), pages 256-274.
    2. Jia Chen & Jiti Gao & Degui Li, 2010. "Estimation in Semiparametric Time Series Regression," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2010-27, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional variance; Nonparametric estimator; Semiparametric models; Forecasting; Machine Learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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