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Estimates of uncertainty around budget forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • John Clark

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Caroline Gibbons

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Susan Morrissey

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Joshua Pooley

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Emily Pye

    (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australian Aid program, Government of Australia)

  • Rhett Wilcox

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Luke Willard

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.

Suggested Citation

  • John Clark & Caroline Gibbons & Susan Morrissey & Joshua Pooley & Emily Pye & Rhett Wilcox & Luke Willard, 2013. "Estimates of uncertainty around budget forecasts," Treasury Working Papers 2013-04, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Nov 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2013_4
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    File URL: http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2013/Working%20Paper%202013-04/Downloads/PDF/Working_Paper_2013_4v3.ashx
    File Function: First version, 2013
    Download Restriction: no
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & A. Jesús Sánchez-Fuentes, 2014. "A toolkit to strengthen government budget surveillance," Working Papers 1416, Banco de España.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Confidence intervals; forecast errors;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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