IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tor/tecipa/munro-02-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Postan, Population, and Prices in Late-Medieval England and Flanders

Author

Abstract

This paper re-examines the classic demographic or 'real' model, essentially based on a Malthusian-Ricardian model, that the late Michael Postan (Cambridge) utilized to explain the behaviour of the later-medieval western European economy, and in particular the behaviour of price movements. In essence, Postan had argued that just as population growth, with a relatively static agrarian technology, and thus with the inevitable Law of Diminishing returns, had drive up grain prices during the 'long thirteenth century' (c. 1180- c.1320), so, in reverse fashion, population decline during the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries led to a fall in grain prices. The drastic alteration in the land:labour ratio also led to a rise in real wages and a fall in rents; and in general to rising living standards. This in turn led to a rise in relative prices for non-grain food prices, especially in livestock products, and in industrial prices. In Postan's strongly pronounced views, monetary changes played no role in late-medieval price movements nor in any of the changes that the economy underwent during the late Middle Ages. Utilising new and revised sets of price and wage data for late-medieval England and Flanders, unavailable to Postan, this paper seeks to prove that 'money mattered', and in particular that the oscillations in price levels (as measured by a consumer price index), from inflation to deflation to inflation and then again to deflation have to be explained by monetary changes, both in money stocks and flows. The evidence, in both tables and graphs, will demonstrate that the prices for grains, livestock products, and industrial goods generally rose together during the inflationary periods in later medieval England and Flanders and then fell together, if never precisely in tandem, during the deflationary periods. Analyses of relative price changes and of livestock:grain price and industrial:grain price do not vindicate Postan's predictions of price divergencies, except during a few, rare, and brief periods. Since another recent and lengthy publication is devoted to the question of real-wage changes, this paper provides only a cursory overview of those changes: to demonstrate, first, that real wages, which had been declining before the Black Death, did not rise immediately following the Black Death, did not recover their former levels until the late 1360s, and did not begin their sustained rise, in England, until the late 1370s; and in Flanders, not until the 1390s. The subsequent rise in real wages was fundamentally, if not exclusively, the consequence of nominal wage-stickiness combined with prolonged and deep deflation; and thus real wages also fell during inflationary periods in the fifteenth century, particularly in Flanders, where such inflations were the consequence of much more frequent coinage debasements. Money does indeed matter.

Suggested Citation

  • John Munro, 2002. "Postan, Population, and Prices in Late-Medieval England and Flanders," Working Papers munro-02-04, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:munro-02-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/public/workingPapers/UT-ECIPA-MUNRO-02-04.pdf
    File Function: MainText
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Clark, 2007. "The long march of history: Farm wages, population, and economic growth, England 1209-1869 -super-1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 60(1), pages 97-135, February.
    2. Gregory Clark, 2005. "The Long March of History: Farm Wages, Population and Economic Growth, England 1209-1869," Working Papers 540, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ricardo; Malthus; population; agriculture; money; prices; wages;

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
    • N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:munro-02-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RePEc Maintainer). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.