IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20260032.html

Road Networks and Tropical Deforestation

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Bogmans

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Gerard van der Meijden

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Cees Withagen

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

We analyze a dynamic spatial model of deforestation in which roads facilitate agricultural expansion. The model's key innovation is that road construction costs decrease with the existing road stock, creating positive network externalities that are specific to infrastructure: each road built serves as a stepping stone for further road construction. Under open access, myopic producers fail to internalize that roads built today facilitate future road construction. As a result, the pace of deforestation is faster under a forward-looking regime of private property than open access, reversing a standard result from resource economics. We calibrate the model to the Brazilian Amazon, where cattle ranching is the primary driver of deforestation, and calculate the international transfer required to incentivize Brazil to implement a carbon tax that completely stops deforestation. We find that Brazil's extensive existing road network increases this required transfer, demonstrating how infrastructure creates ``deforestation lock-in'' that makes conservation progressively more expensive.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Bogmans & Gerard van der Meijden & Cees Withagen, 2026. "Road Networks and Tropical Deforestation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 26-032/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/26032.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franziska Funke & Linus Mattauch & Inge van den Bijgaart & H. Charles J. Godfray & Cameron Hepburn & David Klenert & Marco Springmann & Nicolas Treich, 2022. "Toward Optimal Meat Pricing: Is It Time to Tax Meat Consumption?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(2), pages 219-240.
    2. Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2019. "Deforestation in the Amazon: A Unified Framework for Estimation and Policy Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(6), pages 2713-2744.
    3. E. B. Barbier & J. C. Burgess, 2001. "The Economics of Tropical Deforestation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 413-433, July.
    4. Hartwick, John M. & Van Long, Ngo & Tian, Huilan, 2001. "Deforestation and Development in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 235-251, May.
    5. William F. Laurance & Gopalasamy Reuben Clements & Sean Sloan & Christine S. O’Connell & Nathan D. Mueller & Miriam Goosem & Oscar Venter & David P. Edwards & Ben Phalan & Andrew Balmford & Rodney Van, 2014. "A global strategy for road building," Nature, Nature, vol. 513(7517), pages 229-232, September.
    6. William F. Laurance & Gopalasamy Reuben Clements & Sean Sloan & Christine S. O’Connell & Nathan D. Mueller & Miriam Goosem & Oscar Venter & David P. Edwards & Ben Phalan & Andrew Balmford & Rodney Van, 2014. "Correction: Corrigendum: A global strategy for road building," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7521), pages 262-262, October.
    7. Franklin, Sergio L. & Pindyck, Robert S., 2018. "Tropical Forests, Tipping Points, and the Social Cost of Deforestation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 161-171.
    8. Chris A. Boulton & Timothy M. Lenton & Niklas Boers, 2022. "Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 271-278, March.
    9. repec:bla:jecsur:v:15:y:2001:i:3:p:413-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bård Harstad & Torben K. Mideksa, 2017. "Conservation Contracts and Political Regimes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1708-1734.
    11. Angelsen, Arild & Kaimowitz, David, 1999. "Rethinking the Causes of Deforestation: Lessons from Economic Models," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 73-98, February.
    12. Gollin, Douglas & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2024. "Agricultural Trade and Deforestation: The Role of New Roads," CEPR Discussion Papers 19710, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    13. Paula Bustos & Bruno Caprettini & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2016. "Agricultural Productivity and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1320-1365, June.
    14. A. Baccini & S. J. Goetz & W. S. Walker & N. T. Laporte & M. Sun & D. Sulla-Menashe & J. Hackler & P. S. A. Beck & R. Dubayah & M. A. Friedl & S. Samanta & R. A. Houghton, 2012. "Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 182-185, March.
    15. Bård Harstad, 2020. "Technology and Time Inconsistency," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(7), pages 2653-2689.
    16. Katharine Ricke & Laurent Drouet & Ken Caldeira & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "Author Correction: Country-level social cost of carbon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 567-567, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bård Harstad, 2020. "Trade and Trees: How Trade Agreements Can Motivate Conservation Instead of Depletion," CESifo Working Paper Series 8569, CESifo.
    2. repec:osf:socarx:8yfr7_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bård Harstad, 2022. "Trade, Trees, and Contingent Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series 9596, CESifo.
    4. Araujo, Rafael & Costa, Francisco J M & Sant'Anna, Marcelo, 2020. "Efficient Forestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Evidence from a Dynamic Model," SocArXiv 8yfr7, Center for Open Science.
    5. Bård Harstad, 2023. "The Conservation Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(7), pages 1731-1771.
    6. Lucchesi, Andrea & Khanna, Madhu & Pereda, Paula C. & Ussami, Keyi A. & Ruggiero, Patricia G.C. & Dornelas, Victor S. & Lallement, Tess, 2024. "Araguaia biodiversity corridor cost benefit analysis: Large scale restoration and sustainable agribusiness in Amazon and Cerrado," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Gregory S. Amacher & Erkki Koskela & Markku Ollikainen, 2004. "Deforestation, Production Intensity and Land Use under Insecure Property Rights," CESifo Working Paper Series 1128, CESifo.
    8. Ajanaku, B.A. & Collins, A.R., 2021. "Economic growth and deforestation in African countries: Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis applicable?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Noah Kaiser & Christina K. Barstow, 2022. "Rural Transportation Infrastructure in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Review of Impacts, Implications, and Interventions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-48, February.
    10. Ke Wang & Li Wang & Jianjun Zhang, 2024. "Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Regional Transportation Land Demand Forecasting: Empirical Study from Yangtze River Economic Belt, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Andrzej Bochniak & Monika Stoma, 2021. "Estimating the Optimal Location for the Storage of Pellet Surplus," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
    12. Weslem Rodrigues Faria & Felipe Morelli Silva & Alexandre Nunes Almeida & Admir Antonio Betarelli Junior, 2025. "The relationship between rural credit policy and deforestation: evidence from Brazil," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 27(2), pages 231-263, April.
    13. Antinori, Camille M. & Rausser, Gordon C., 2003. "Does Community Involvement Matter? How Collective Choice Affects Forests in Mexico," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt83j385n0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    14. Gong, Caozai & Wang, Linying & Zhang, Jing & Liang, Hao & Liu, Haoqi, 2025. "Species energy budgets, species richness, and species extinction under habitat loss with spatial configuration," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 508(C).
    15. Godoy, Ricardo & Reyes-García, Victoria & Vadez, Vincent & Leonard, William R. & Tanner, Susan & Huanca, Toms & Wilkie, David, 2009. "The relation between forest clearance and household income among native Amazonians: Results from the Tsimane' Amazonian panel study, Bolivia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1864-1871, April.
    16. Liu, Yutian & Liu, Zhengying & Zhang, Xuejie, 2026. "The interactions between road networks and ecological corridors: A novel dual-network method," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Coenen, Johanna & Newig, Jens & Meyfroidt, Patrick, 2022. "Environmental governance of a Belt and Road project in Montenegro – National agency and external influences," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    18. Caravaggio, Nicola, 2022. "Economic growth and forest transition in Latin America," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Rigal, Stanislas & Calvet, Coralie & Tardieu, Léa & Roussel, Sébastien & Vaissière, Anne-Charlotte, 2025. "The hidden dimension of low-carbon public transport policies: From biodiversity conservation to user preferences," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    20. Ajanaku, Bolarinwa & Collins, Alan R., 2020. "Economic growth and deforestation in developing countries: Is the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis Still Applicable? Evidence from a Panel of Selected African Countries," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304271, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Fatima Mustafa & Saadia Zia & Dr. Umbreen Khizar, 2021. "Impact of Environmental Concerns on Environmental Attitudes among University Employees," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(3), pages 251-260, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.