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Housing Market Pressures and Post-Earthquake Displacement: Evidence from the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes

Author

Listed:
  • Yusuf Emre Akgunduz
  • Muhammed Hamza Kayrici

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the February 2023 Türkiye earthquakes on housing markets in unaffected regions using online real estate listings and a time-based Regression Discontinuity Design. We document a sharp post-disaster demand shock driven by large-scale population displacement, with effects concentrated in the residential rental market. Consistent with a residential displacement shock, no significant effects are detected in commercial property markets. Price increases were highly segmented: pressures were strongest for multi-room units, reflecting the larger family structures of displaced households, and for newly constructed units, indicating a post-disaster flight-to-safety. Cross-sectional province-level and difference-in-differences estimates show that pre-existing migration networks and geographic distance are the primary determinants of rental price pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Emre Akgunduz & Muhammed Hamza Kayrici, 2026. "Housing Market Pressures and Post-Earthquake Displacement: Evidence from the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes," Working Papers 2613, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2613
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en/main+menu/publications/research/working+paperss/2026/26-13
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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