IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/wpaper/1911.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic Developments and Their Macroeconomic Impacts

Author

Listed:
  • M. Koray Kalafatcilar

Abstract

This study firstly introduces demographic concepts and reveals the different dynamics displayed by emerging and advanced economies. Then, the links between demographic developments and economic activity are discussed. We aim to support our arguments with quantitative findings obtained through a New-Keynesian general equilibrium model. The general equilibrium model, which is calibrated for Turkey, is simulated for the period until 2050 in accordance with changes in demographic exogenous variables. Through this simulation, the path that main macroeconomic variables follow is analyzed. The simulation exercise, conducted through the model which is de-trended with the increases in productivity and population, reveals that, compared to the initial steady state, production factor prices significantly change; real interest rate declines and real wage increases.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Koray Kalafatcilar, 2019. "Demographic Developments and Their Macroeconomic Impacts," Working Papers 1911, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1911
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2019/19-11
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; Overlapping generations; Savings; General equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sermet Pekin or Ilker Cakar or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.