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Has the Forecasting Performance of the Federal Reserve�s Greenbooks Changed over Time?

Author

Listed:
  • Ozan Eksi
  • Cuneyt Orman
  • Bedri Kamil Onur Tas

Abstract

We investigate how the forecasting performance of the Federal Reserve Greenbooks has changed relative to commercial forecasters between 1974 and 2009. To this end, we analyze time-variation in the Greenbook coefficients in forecast encompassing regressions. Assuming that model coefficients change continuously, we estimate unobserved components models using Bayesian inference techniques. To verify that our results do not depend on the specific way change is modeled, we also allow the coefficients to change discretely rather than continuously and test for structural breaks using classical inference techniques. We find that the Greenbook forecasts have been consistently superior to the commercial forecasts at all horizons throughout our sample period. Although the forecasting performance gap has narrowed at more distant horizons after the early-to-mid 1980s, it remains significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Ozan Eksi & Cuneyt Orman & Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2015. "Has the Forecasting Performance of the Federal Reserve�s Greenbooks Changed over Time?," Working Papers 1532, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1532
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2015/15-32
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greenbook inflation forecasts; SPF inflation forecasts; Evaluating forecasts; Time-variation in coefficients;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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