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Mitigating Turkey's Trilemma Tradeoffs

Author

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  • Yasin Akcelik
  • Orcan Cortuk
  • Ibrahim M. Turhan

Abstract

We study the trilemma configuration of the Turkish economy for the period between 2002 and 2012. The paper starts by empirically testing the Mundell-Fleming theoretical concept of an \impossible trinity" (trilemma) for Turkey, following Aizenman, Chinn and Ito (ACI, 2008). This includes calculating the trilemma indices and regressing them on a constant. We show that there is a misspecification with ACI approach and improve the specification by applying a Kalman filter to the classical linear regression that enables us to capture the time-varying importance of policy decisions within the trilemma framework. By comparing the residuals of each approach, we show that Kalman filter analysis has superior results. Then, our analysis continues by revealing a role for central bank foreign reserves and required reserves in mitigating the trilemma tradeoffs { we show that foreign reserves to GDP ratio and required reserve ratio have positive significant impact on the residuals obtained from the trilemma regression, thus making the policy tradeoffs smaller.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasin Akcelik & Orcan Cortuk & Ibrahim M. Turhan, 2012. "Mitigating Turkey's Trilemma Tradeoffs," Working Papers 1229, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1229
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    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/2012/12-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bernardo S. de M. Carvalho & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2008. "Ineffective Controls on Capital Inflows under Sophisticated Financial Markets: Brazil in the Nineties," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 29-96 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
    5. A. Bénassy-Quéré & B. Cœuré, 2002. "The Survival of Intermediate Exchange rate Regimes," THEMA Working Papers 2002-11, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    6. Michael Athans, 1974. "The Importance of Kalman Filtering Methods for Economic Systems," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 1, pages 49-64 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. RNuket Kirci Cevik & Sel Dibooglu & Ali M. Kutan, 2016. "Real and Financial Sector Studies in Central and Eastern Europe: A Review," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 2-31, February.
    2. Toraganlı, Nazlı & Yazgan, M. Ege, 2016. "Exchange rates and firm survival: An examination with Turkish firm-level data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 433-443.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trilemma; impossible trinity; required reserves; international reserves; central bank policies;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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