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Foreign Exchange Pressures in Latin America: Does Debt Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Graham Bird

    (University of Surrey)

  • Alex Mandilaras

    (University of Surrey)

Abstract

Latin American countries have been in the eye of economic and ¯nancial storms several times in recent years. Advice from the International Monetary Fund has consistently highlighted the need for sound fiscal policies and lower debt levels. But is public debt relevant? Following a brief discussion of the theoretical issues involved, this paper examines empirically the relationship between public indebtedness and pressures in the foreign exchange market. Alternative measures are used to capture the latter and the analysis controls for a de facto classi¯cation of exchange rate regimes. Estimations of static and dynamic panels for 28 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries report substantial fiscal effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham Bird & Alex Mandilaras, 2007. "Foreign Exchange Pressures in Latin America: Does Debt Matter?," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1307, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:1307
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2007/DP13-07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2003. "Macroeconomic effects of IMF-sponsored programs in Latin America: output costs, program recidivism and the vicious cycle of failed stabilizations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 991-1014, December.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    4. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    6. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-190, March.
    7. Soojin Moon & Ales Bulir, 2003. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Help Make Fiscal Adjustment More Durable?," IMF Working Papers 03/38, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    9. Bird, Graham & Mandilaras, Alex, 2006. "Regional heterogeneity in the relationship between fiscal imbalances and foreign exchange market pressure," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1171-1181, July.
    10. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    11. repec:hrv:faseco:34721963 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Julio J. Guzman, 2016. "Social protection during recessions: evidence from Chile," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 348-368, October.
    2. Scott W. Hegerty, 2015. "Time-Varying Versus Fixed Weights in Exchange-Market Pressure Indices: Evidence From Tests Using Latin American Data," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 21-36.
    3. Akram, Gilal Muhammad & Byrne, Joseph P., 2015. "Foreign exchange market pressure and capital controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 42-53.
    4. Scott William Hegerty, 2013. "Principal component measures of exchange market pressure: comparisons with variance-weighted measures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(18), pages 1483-1495, September.
    5. Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Measuring Exchange Market Pressure and Its Contagion in the East African Community," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 239-257, June.
    6. Alexis Cruz Rodriguez, 2011. "Prediction of Currency Crises Using a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 26(2), pages 39-60, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency crises; public debt; latin america;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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