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Pluralistic Modeling of Complex Systems

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  • Dirk Helbing

Abstract

The modeling of complex systems such as ecological or socio-economic systems can be very challenging. Although various modeling approaches exist, they are generally not compatible and mutually consistent, and empirical data often do not allow one to decide what model is the right one, the best one, or most appropriate one. Moreover, as the recent financial and economic crisis shows, relying on a single, idealized model can be very costly. This contribution tries to shed new light on problems that arise when complex systems are modeled. While the arguments can be transferred to many different systems, the related scientific challenges are illustrated for social, economic, and traffic systems. The contribution discusses issues that are sometimes overlooked and tries to overcome some frequent misunderstandings and controversies of the past. At the same time, it is highlighted how some long-standing scientific puzzles may be solved by considering non-linear models of heterogeneous agents with spatio-temporal interactions. As a result of the analysis, it is concluded that a paradigm shift towards a pluralistic or possibilistic modeling approach, which integrates multiple world views, is overdue. In this connection, it is argued that it can be useful to combine many different approaches to obtain a good picture of reality, even though they may be inconsistent. Finally, it is identified what would be profitable areas of collaboration between the socio-economic, natural, and engineering sciences.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk Helbing, "undated". "Pluralistic Modeling of Complex Systems," Working Papers CCSS-10-009, ETH Zurich, Chair of Systems Design.
  • Handle: RePEc:stz:wpaper:ccss-10-009
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kononovicius, Aleksejus & Ruseckas, Julius, 2019. "Order book model with herd behavior exhibiting long-range memory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 171-191.
    2. Aleksejus Kononovicius & Julius Ruseckas, 2018. "Order book model with herd behavior exhibiting long-range memory," Papers 1809.02772, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
    3. Dirk Helbing, 2013. "Economics 2.0: The Natural Step towards A Self-Regulating, Participatory Market Society," Papers 1305.4078, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2013.
    4. Aleksejus Kononovicius & Valentas Daniunas, 2013. "Agent-based and macroscopic modeling of the complex socio-economic systems," Papers 1303.3693, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2013.
    5. Bell, Peter Newton, 2014. "Design of Financial Derivatives: Statistical Power does not Ensure Risk Management Power," MPRA Paper 57438, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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