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A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election

Author

Listed:
  • Christa Jensen

    () (Regional Research Institute, Department of Economics, West Virginia University)

  • Donald Lacombe

    () (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University)

  • Stuart McIntyre

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specific effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specific effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

Suggested Citation

  • Christa Jensen & Donald Lacombe & Stuart McIntyre, 2012. "A Bayesian Spatial Individual Effects Probit Model of the 2010 U.K. General Election," Working Papers 1201, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1201
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    Keywords

    United Kingdom General Election; Bayesian hierarchical modelling; spatial econometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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