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The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach

Author

Listed:
  • Grant Allan

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Igor Eromenko

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Peter McGregor

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

  • Kim Swales

    () (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be “inefficient†in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Grant Allan & Igor Eromenko & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales, 2010. "The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach," Working Papers 1010, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:str:wpaper:1010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2009. "Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-196.
    2. H. Brett Humphreys & Katherine T. McClain, 1998. "Reducing the Impacts of Energy Price Volatility Through Dynamic Portfolio Selection," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 107-131.
    3. van Ruijven, Bas & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4797-4808, November.
    4. Siddharth Chandra, 2002. "A Test of the Regional Growth-Instability Frontier Using State Data," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 78(3), pages 442-462.
    5. Saunders, Harry D., 1984. "On the inevitable return of higher oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 310-320, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. de-Llano Paz, Fernando & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Calvo Silvosa, Anxo & Soares, Isabel, 2014. "The technological and environmental efficiency of the EU-27 power mix: An evaluation based on MPT," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 67-81.
    2. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "Energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices—Taiwan energy supply structure case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 9-20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity generation mix; portfolio theory; regional energy policy;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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