IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Likely Impacts of Future Agricultural Change on Upland Farming and Bio diversity


  • Acs, Szvetlana
  • Armsworth, Paul R
  • Dallimer, Martin
  • Gaston, Kevin J
  • Graves, Anil
  • Hanley, Nicholas
  • Morris, Joe


Recent decades have witnessed substantial losses of biodiversity in Europe, partly driven by the ecological changes associated with intensification of agricultural production. These changes have particularly affected avian (bird) diversity in marginal areas such as the uplands of the UK. We developed integrated ecological-economic models, using eight different indicators of biodiversity based on avian species richness and individual bird densities. The models represent six different types of farms which are typical for the UK uplands, and were used to assess the outcomes of different agricultural futures. Our results show that the impacts of these future agricultural scenarios on farm incomes, land use and biodiversity are very diverse across policy scenarios and farm types. Moreover, each policy scenario produces un-equal distributions of farm income changes, and gains and losses in alternative biodiversity indicators. This shows that generalisations of the effects of land use change on biodiversity can be misleading. Our results also suggest that a focus on umbrella species or indicators (such as total richness) can miss important compositional effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Acs, Szvetlana & Armsworth, Paul R & Dallimer, Martin & Gaston, Kevin J & Graves, Anil & Hanley, Nicholas & Morris, Joe, 2010. "Likely Impacts of Future Agricultural Change on Upland Farming and Bio diversity," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2010-14, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2010-14

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    policy scenarios; ecological-economic models; farm models; biodiversity; agri-environmental policy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2010-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Liam Delaney (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.