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Croissance par les exportations, fragilité financière et gradualisme: Quels défis pour la Chine ?

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Luc Gaffard

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Francesco Saraceno

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

L’article commence par une discussion des caractéristiques de l’impressionnante performance macroéconomique de la Chine depuis que la réforme a été mise en place, en les rapportant au choix d’une stratégie de croissance fondée sur l’exportation. Nous soutenons qu’une telle stratégie provoque un changement structurel de l’économie dont l’analyse ne peut pas être limitée à la comparaison entre l’équilibre final et l’équilibre initial. Nous proposons, alors, un modèle séquentiel à deux secteurs, conçu pour analyser la transition en déséquilibre qui suit un choc sur l’échange. Nos principales conclusions sont que, pour que la transition vers un nouvel équilibre soit un succès, nous avons besoin : (a) de frictions, notamment dans la mobilité des firmes entre secteurs ; et (b) de la disponibilité de moyens de financement externes pour les firmes mettant en œuvre les restructurations exigées par la transition. En Chine, ces moyens ont été fournis par les investissements directs étrangers qui ont compensé un marché du crédit insuffisamment développé.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Luc Gaffard & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Croissance par les exportations, fragilité financière et gradualisme: Quels défis pour la Chine ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9937, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/9937
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chine; Croissance par les exportations; Exportation;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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