Croissance par les exportations, fragilité financière et gradualisme. Quels défis pour la Chine ?

The paper begins by discussing the features of the impressive macroeconomic performance of China since the reform started, linking them to the choice of an export led growth strategy. We then argue that such a strategy entails a structural change for the economy, whose analysis cannot be limited to the comparison between the initial and final equilibria. We then propose a sequential two sector model suited to analyze the disequilibrium transition following a trade shock. Our main conclusions are that, for a smooth successful transition towards the new equilibrium we need: (a) some frictions, notably in the mobility of firms across sectors; and (b) the availability of external financial means for firms undergoing the restructuring required by the transition. In China, these external means of financing were provided by fdis that compensated an insufficiently developed credit market.