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Monetary policy and COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
  • Marcin Kolasa
  • Krzysztof Makarski

Abstract

We study the macroeconomic effects of the COVID-19 epidemic in a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium setup with nominal rigidities. We evaluate various containment policies and show that they allow to dramatically reduce the welfare cost of the disease. Then we investigate the role that monetary policy, in its capacity to manage aggregate demand, should play during the epidemic. We show that treating the observed output contraction as a standard recession leads to a bad policy, irrespective of the underlying containment measures. Then we check how monetary policy should solve the trade-off between stabilizing the economy and containing the epidemic. If no administrative restrictions are in place, the second motive prevails and, in spite of the deep recession, optimal monetary policy is in fact contractionary. Only if sufficient containment measures are being introduced should central bank interventions be expansionary and help stabilize economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Krzysztof Makarski, 2021. "Monetary policy and COVID-19," KAE Working Papers 2021-067, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2021067
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    File URL: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/Documents/WorkingPapersKAE/WPKAE_2021_067.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Sabina Marchetti & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Giuseppe Ilardi & Giorgio Guzzetta & Piero Poletti & Patrizio Pezzotti & Antonino Bella & Paola Stefanelli & Flavia Riccardo & Stefano, 2022. "An Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2 with Self-Adaptive Containment Measures," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Benmir, Ghassane & Jaccard, Ivan & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy in an estimated SIR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. João Tovar Jalles & Bryn Battersby & Rachel Lee, 2024. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Announcements: Early Evidence from COVID-19," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 623-658, July.
    4. Lepetit, Antoine & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2022. "The limited power of monetary policy in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Jaccard, Ivan, 2022. "The trade-off between public health and the economy in the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2690, European Central Bank.
    6. S. Belgin Akçay & Mert Akyüz, 2024. "Why Did House Prices Go Up During COVID-19 Pandemic? Policy-Driven or Market-Driven?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 27(2), pages 303-328.
    7. Divino, Jose Angelo & da Silva, Adriana Gomes, 2024. "Cash transfers and the Phillips curve: The case of Brazil during the pandemic," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 680-688.
    8. Trabandt, Mathias, 2023. "Comment on “Optimal monetary policy in an estimated SIR model by G. Benmir, I. Jaccard, and G. Vermandel”," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Jakub Rybacki & Michał Gniazdowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: lessons from the external shocks," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 54(1), pages 45-64.
    10. Georgios Chortareas & Apostolos G. Katsafados & Theodore Pelagidis & Chara Prassa, 2025. "Credit risk modelling within the euro area in the COVID‐19 period: Evidence from an ICAS framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1074-1105, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty

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