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Has the ICT Revolution Run its Course?

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Abstract

We assess the contention that the force of the ICT revolution was spent when the dotcom bubble burst. We identify the fundamental principle of flexible machine logic, the use of which distinguishes the group of modern ICTs - the electronic computer, the Internet and some related technologies - that make up the GPT of programmable computing networks (PCNs) and that have driven the ICT revolution. We seek to place PCN on two logistic trajectories that describe its evolving efficiency and applications. To gain some perspective, we then compare the evolution of PCN with that of electricity. We argue that PCN still has significant scope for increasing its efficiency and that it is still creating an undiminished flow of new applications, concluding that the force of the ICT revolution will continue for some decades.

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  • Kenneth I. Carlaw & Richard G. Lipsey & Ryan Webb, 2007. "Has the ICT Revolution Run its Course?," Discussion Papers dp07-18, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    • Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp07-18
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    File URL: http://www.sfu.ca/repec-econ/sfu/sfudps/dp07-18.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth I. Carlaw & Richard G. Lipsey, 2021. "The Funding of Important Emerging and Evolving Technologies by the Public and Private Sectors," Discussion Papers dp21-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    2. Дементьев В.Е., 2013. "Структурные Факторы Технологического Развития," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 49(4), pages 33-46, октябрь.
    3. Christiaan Hogendorn & Brett Frischmann, 2020. "Infrastructure and general purpose technologies: a technology flow framework," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 469-488, December.
    4. Federico Biagi, 2013. "ICT and Productivity: A Review of the Literature," JRC Working Papers on Digital Economy 2013-09, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    5. Dov Samet & David Schmeidler, 2023. "Desirability relations in Savage’s model of decision making," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 1-33, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ICT revolution; diffusion; electronic computers; internet; general purpose technologies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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