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Has the ICT Revolution Run its Course?

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Abstract

We assess the contention that the force of the ICT revolution was spent when the dotcom bubble burst. We identify the fundamental principle of flexible machine logic, the use of which distinguishes the group of modern ICTs - the electronic computer, the Internet and some related technologies - that make up the GPT of programmable computing networks (PCNs) and that have driven the ICT revolution. We seek to place PCN on two logistic trajectories that describe its evolving efficiency and applications. To gain some perspective, we then compare the evolution of PCN with that of electricity. We argue that PCN still has significant scope for increasing its efficiency and that it is still creating an undiminished flow of new applications, concluding that the force of the ICT revolution will continue for some decades.

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  • Kenneth I. Carlaw & Richard G. Lipsey & Ryan Webb, 2007. "Has the ICT Revolution Run its Course?," Discussion Papers dp07-18, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  • Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp07-18
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    File URL: http://www.sfu.ca/econ-research/RePEc/sfu/sfudps/dp07-18.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Дементьев В.Е., 2013. "Структурные Факторы Технологического Развития," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 49(4), pages 33-46, октябрь.

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    Keywords

    ICT revolution; diffusion; electronic computers; internet; general purpose technologies.;

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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