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Credit Risk Determinants In The Vulnerable Economies Of Europe: Evidence From The Italian Banking System


  • Esida Gila-Gourgoura

    () (Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, University of Cape Town)

  • Eftychia Nikolaidou

    () (Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, University of Cape Town)


This study uses the ARDL approach to cointegration to identify the factors affecting credit risk in the Italian banking system over the period 1997Q4?2017Q1. The ratio of new bad loans to the outstanding amount of performing loans in the previous period is the selected proxy of credit risk whereas a wide range of explanatory variables are included in the study. Compared to the previous studies, a wider timeframe is investigated, which captures the booming period, the global financial crisis and the ongoing Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The findings suggest that macroeconomic cyclical, bank-specific, and financial market variables affect the flow of new bad loans in the Italian banking system. The high significance of the sovereign debt crisis risk proxy signals the important link between banking and sovereign debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Esida Gila-Gourgoura & Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2018. "Credit Risk Determinants In The Vulnerable Economies Of Europe: Evidence From The Italian Banking System," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 6909750, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:sek:iefpro:6909750

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    Credit risk; macroeconomic determinants; bank-specific variables; sovereign debt crisis; Italian banking systemcredit risk; Italian banking system; sovereign debt crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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