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Panel Estimations of PPP and Relative Price Models for CEECs: Lessons for Real Exchange Rate Modelling

Author

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  • Lukasz Rawdanowicz

Abstract

The paper contributes to the recent empirical literature on real exchange rates in CEECs. Instead of estimating a complete model, the PPP and relative price models (two main components of the real exchange rate) are investigated separately. All empirical tests are conducted in the heterogonous dynamic panel framework. The unbalanced panel includes generally nine CEECs (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovak Republic and Slovenia) over 1993-2002. Models are estimated by two econometric methods: FMOLS and PMGE. The trend appreciation of nominal exchange rates deflated with tradables prices is found in most of CEECs. The appreciation was mainly driven by tradables inflation. Formal econometric tests, based on the explicit estimation of constrained coefficients of PPP model, do not support the strong version of relative PPP. This outcome is invariant to the use of bilateral or multilateral exchange rates, different numeraire currency or different specifications of the PPP model with regard to dependent variable. Evidence is provided that the trend appreciation is explained by the non-tradables processing component effect. It is demonstrated that this mechanism plays an important role also in determination of relative prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2004. "Panel Estimations of PPP and Relative Price Models for CEECs: Lessons for Real Exchange Rate Modelling," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0276, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0276
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. García Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2009. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Developed Countries and Emerging Market Economies: Different Outcomes Explained," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-24.
    2. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    4. García-Solanes, José & Sancho-Portero, F. Israel & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2008. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson effect in some new member states of the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 17-32, March.
    5. Mirjana Miletic, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Revised Analysis of Panel Data Cointegration Tests," Working papers 22, National Bank of Serbia.
    6. Mirjana Miletić, 2012. "Estimating the Impact of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Central and Eastern European Countries: A Revised Analysis of Panel Data Cointegration Tests," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(4), pages 475-499, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate models; PPP; panel estimations; CEECs;

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