Il deflusso di capitale umano dal Mezzogiorno: dai fattori di push e di pull agli effetti perversi del "brain drain"

Some studies that investigate the effects of migration flows –based on Solow‟s growth theory (1956) and considering the specific contribution of the human capital transfer of migrant workers (Mankiw e al. 1992; Dolado e al. 1994, Piras, 1996) –allow to evaluate the negative impact generated by the brain drain on economic growth in a specific area. Preliminary to such an evaluation is the analysis of those push and pull factors which, within certain socio-institutional contexts, bring workers with higher skills to emigrate from certain areas, moving to others even within the national boundaries. The removal of at least some of these factors from the places of origin could actually allow to limit the pathological effects of human capital outflows. This paper aims to investigate in this direction, trying to estimate the influence of the main variables that drive the young University graduates of Southern Italy to look for an occupation in other Italian regions. The analysis starts with a brief presentation of migration dynamics –especially of the highly-skilled labour force that has moved from the South to the center and North of Italy in the last twenty-five years. After having advanced some theoretical interpretations of the phenomena investigated, we will apply cointegration technique to assess the specific impact of certain determinants. It will follow a brief reference to those growth models which allow to consider the impact of human capital outflows from a specific area, in order to eventually estimate its negative effect on income in terms of loss of potential growth.