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Optimal Correction of the Public Debt and Fiscal Resilience Measures

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Abstract

This paper derives the optimal response of the primary budget surplus to changes in the debt-to-GDP ratio in a stochastic model of debt. Under the optimal solution the surplus reactivity to the debt-to-GDP ratio is independent of the debt ratio itself, but its size depends on economic fundamentals and on the degree of uncertainty surrounding the impact of fiscal policies. We propose two measures of fiscal resilience under the optimal control that may be used to gauge the soundness of a consolidation plan and as early warning indicators of fiscal imbalances.

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  • Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Stefano Patrì, 2020. "Optimal Correction of the Public Debt and Fiscal Resilience Measures," CEIS Research Paper 479, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 29 Apr 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:479
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Brachetta & Claudia Ceci, 2021. "A Stochastic Control Approach to Public Debt Management," Papers 2107.10491, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt-to-GDP Ratio; Optimal Control; Fiscal Consolidation; Resilience.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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