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Can the traditional Asian US dollar peg exchange rate regime be extended to include the Japanese yen?

Author

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  • Colm Kearney
  • Cal Muckley

Abstract

Using daily data for a select set of four Asian exchange rates, namely the Hong Kong dollar, the Singapore dollar, the Taiwan dollar and the Thailand baht, from October 1985 to October 2002, we apply principal components analysis and the O-GARCH model to describe the evolution and persistence in the correlations over time. We also estimate 2-, 3- and 4-variable multivariate GARCH models, without imposing the assumption of constant correlations, to investigate volatility interaction amongst the currencies. To allow for fat tails in the distributions of exchange rate changes, we use the multivariate student-t distribution in maximising our log-likelihood functions. Our results indicate the possibility of designing an Asian exchange rate system involving a number of the region’s currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Colm Kearney & Cal Muckley, 2006. "Can the traditional Asian US dollar peg exchange rate regime be extended to include the Japanese yen?," Centre for Financial Markets Working Papers 10197/1145, Research Repository, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:rru:cfmwps:10197/1145
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1145
    File Function: First version, 2006
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    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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