Estimating the correlation between natality and economic growth

The birth rate is one of the key demographic indicators and by its major impact on labour force and employment it is in a strong positive correlation with economic growth. Based on available data for various periods, we are analysing the complex dynamics of demographic balance both at the global level and the EU’s level. At the global level, empirical data demonstrate the existence of two general strong processes of convergence: for the natality towards a birth rate of 10 crude, per 1000 people and for the mortality towards a death rate of 7 crude, per 1000 people. In case of the EU’s level, our study is demonstrating that the demographic balance is equilibrated by the emigration phenomenon. Our study demonstrates the existence of three distinctive trajectories, along with the income per inhabitant growth. Each of them is corresponding to a so-called behavioural regime and the transition between regimes seems to occur “naturally†when the level of development is increasing. Moreover, a model allowing a smooth transition between the empirical trends corresponding to the three groups of states (classified by their income per capita: low, middle, and high) is presented.