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Forecasting U.S. Housing Starts Under Asymmetric Loss


  • Christian , Pierdzioch

    () (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg)

  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph

    () (WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management,)

  • Stadtmann, Georg

    () (Europa-Universität Viadrina)


Survey data of forecasts of the housing market may provide a particularly rich data nvironment for researchers and policymakers to study developments in housing markets. Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. (Rev. Ec. Studies. 72, 1197-1125, 2005), we studied the properties of a large set of survey data of housing starts in the United States. We document the heterogeneity of forecasts, analyze the shape of forecasters’ loss function, study the rationality of forecasts, and the temporal variation in forecasts.

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  • Christian , Pierdzioch & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Forecasting U.S. Housing Starts Under Asymmetric Loss," Working Paper 118/2012, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:vhsuwp:2012_118 Note: Housing starts; Loss function; Rationality of forecasts

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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios Papastamos & Fotis Mouzakis & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "Rationality and Momentum in Real Estate Investment Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-07, Henley Business School, Reading University.

    More about this item


    Housing starts; Loss function; Rationality of forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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