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Forecasting US housing starts under asymmetric loss

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Pierdzioch
  • Jan-Christoph Rülke
  • Georg Stadtmann

Abstract

Survey data of forecasts of the housing market may provide a particularly rich data environment for researchers and policymakers to study developments in housing markets. Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al . (2005), we studied the properties of a large set of survey data of housing starts in the United States. We document the heterogeneity of forecasts, analyse the shape of forecasters' loss function, study the rationality of forecasts and the temporal variation in forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2013. "Forecasting US housing starts under asymmetric loss," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 505-513, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:23:y:2013:i:6:p:505-513
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2012.730130
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09603107.2012.730130
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios Papastamos & Fotis Mouzakis & Simon Stevenson, 2014. "Rationality and Momentum in Real Estate Investment Forecasts," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2014-07, Henley Business School, Reading University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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