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Bolivia en el Contexto de la Crisis Económica Internacional

  • Aliaga, Javier

    ()

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

  • Aguilar, Tirza

    ()

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

  • Téllez, Sergio

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo evaluar el impacto que tendría en el país una serie de shocks externos relacionados con el nuevo contexto de crisis económica mundial. Se asume que en este escenario Bolivia enfrentaría una reducción en los precios de las exportaciones, una reducción en el nivel de inversión extranjera directa, una caída en las remesas de emigrantes y una disminución en el gasto fiscal del gobierno. Con el propósito de evaluar estos efectos en el corto y mediano plazo, se utilizó un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable (MEGC), recursivo y dinámico en un horizonte de diez años de planificación. El ejercicio se realizó en base a los siguientes experimentos de simulación: i) un shock adverso en términos de intercambio, ii) un shock negativo en el nivel de gasto fiscal, y iii) un shock negativo en el nivel de remesas y de inversión extranjera directa (IED).

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File URL: http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.bo/papers/2006-2010/iisec-dt-2009-04.pdf
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Paper provided by Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana in its series Documentos de trabajo with number 4/2009.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2009_004
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