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Bolivia en el Contexto de la Crisis Económica Internacional

Author

Listed:
  • Aliaga Lordemann, Javier

    () (Universidad Católica Boliviana San Pablo)

  • Aguilar Salas, Tirza J.

    () (Universidad Católica Boliviana San Pablo)

Abstract

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo evaluar el impacto que tendría en el país una serie de shocks externos relacionados con el nuevo contexto de crisis económica mundial.' ' Se asume que en este escenario Bolivia enfrentaría una reducción en los precios de las exportaciones, una reducción en el nivel de inversión extranjera directa, una caída en las remesas de emigrantes y una disminución en el gasto fiscal del gobierno. Con el propósito de evaluar estos efectos en el corto y mediano plazo, se utilizó un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable (MEGC), recursivo y dinámico en un horizonte de diez años de planificación. ' 'El ejercicio se realizó en base a los siguientes experimentos de simulación: i) un shock adverso en términos de intercambio, ii) un shock negativo en el nivel de gasto fiscal, y iii) un shock negativo en el nivel de remesas y de inversión extranjera directa (IED).

Suggested Citation

  • Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Aguilar Salas, Tirza J., 2010. "Bolivia en el Contexto de la Crisis Económica Internacional," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 13, pages 91-116.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:0003
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    Keywords

    Bolivia; Contexto interno y externo; Modelo de Equilibrio General;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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