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Food Security and Agro-Industrial Potential of the Eurasian Region

Author

Listed:
  • Evgeny Vinokurov

    (Eurasian Development Bank)

  • Arman Ahunbaev

    (Eurasian Development Bank)

  • Alexander Zaboev

    (Eurasian Development Bank)

  • Stanislav Chuev

    (Eurasian Development Bank)

  • Anton Malakhov

    (Eurasian Development Bank)

  • N. Usmanov
  • Vladimir Pereboev
  • M. Ksenofontov
  • D. Polzikov
  • V. Potapenko
  • V. Shalimov

Abstract

Based on the balance approach, the report analyses the production, resource, and export potential of the agro-industrial complexes of the EAEU countries, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan for the period until 2035. The resource potential for extensive and intensive growth of production of key agri-food products is estimated for two scenarios, taking into account the prospects of agricultural lands expansion and improving yields and productivity. Consumer demand models are used for scenario-based estimation of potential domestic consumption of agro-industrial products, including for food and other purposes. Export potential estimates are based on the logic of the balance approach. In addition, the paper identifies potential markets for food products; offers estimates of the macroeconomic effects of the realisation of the resource, production, and export potential of the agro-industrial complex made by applying multipliers, calculated based on input-output tables; examines the factors hindering development of the agro-industrial complex; offers ways to tap the potential; and defines the principle aspects of food policy in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Evgeny Vinokurov & Arman Ahunbaev & Alexander Zaboev & Stanislav Chuev & Anton Malakhov & N. Usmanov & Vladimir Pereboev & M. Ksenofontov & D. Polzikov & V. Potapenko & V. Shalimov, 2023. "Food Security and Agro-Industrial Potential of the Eurasian Region," Working Papers 023536, Eurasian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eabrwp:023536
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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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