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Impact of Eurozone Financial Shocks on Southeast Asian Economies




Five years after the Global Financial Crisis, the economies of the United States (US) and the eurozone continue to struggle. How will Southeast Asian economies be affected should there be a further deterioration in conditions in the eurozone? In this paper, we present estimates using a Global Vector Autoregression model of the direct impacts in Southeast Asia of a further shock to the eurozone. We find that although the direct impacts are likely to be muted, it could trigger a much larger adjustment should it lead to a reassessment of risks and asset valuations. This is a real possibility given that vulnerability in the region has increased following massive inflows of capital and the build-up of debt related to successive bouts of quantitative easing, initially in the US and now in Japan. In light of a possible reassessment of risks and asset valuations, and with the International Monetary Fund’s resources already stretched, there is a pressing need to improve regional financial safety nets, which are currently unworkable, to deal with the fallout.

Suggested Citation

  • Menon, Jayant & Ng, Thiam Hee, 2013. "Impact of Eurozone Financial Shocks on Southeast Asian Economies," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 116, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0116

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. E. Kohlscheen & M. P. Taylor, 2008. "International liquidity swaps: is the Chiang Mai Initiative pooling reserves efficiently?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 323-332.
    2. C. Randall Henning, 2002. "East Asian Financial Cooperation," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa68.
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    More about this item


    eurozone crisis; asset bubbles; contagion; regional financial safety nets; Chiang Mai Initiative; ASEAN; ASEAN+3;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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