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The Threat of Financial Contagion to Emerging Asia’s Local Bond Markets: Spillovers from Global Crises

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Abstract

This paper employs multivariate GARCH models with a BEKK specification to show significant shock and volatility spillovers from mature bond markets into select emerging Asian local currency bond markets. Results reveal that while the growth of individual bond markets in recent years has been impressive, the threat of financial contagion to emerging Asian bond markets from shock and volatility spillovers in mature markets is real. Although emerging Asian local bond market volatilities are more determined by their own respective shocks and volatilities, in some markets the direct shock and volatility spillovers remain significant. An extended analysis also shows indirect spillovers within domestic asset markets and across economies. The results have important implications for the monitoring and coordination of policies, not just within national jurisdictions but also in regional and global settings, in order to maintain financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Azis, Iwan J. & Mitra, Sabyasachi & Baluga, Anthony & Dime, Roselle, 2013. "The Threat of Financial Contagion to Emerging Asia’s Local Bond Markets: Spillovers from Global Crises," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 106, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0106
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    File URL: http://aric.adb.org/pdf/workingpaper/WP106_Azis_et_al_Spillover.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yap, Josef T. & Majuca, Ruperto P. & Park, Cyn-Young, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Discussion Papers DP 2010-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
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    Cited by:

    1. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2017. "Asia Bond Monitor - June 2016," Working Papers id:11793, eSocialSciences.
    2. Samet Günay, 2016. "Alteration of Risk in Asian Bond Markets during and after Mortgage Crisis: Evidence from Value at Risk (VaR) Analysis," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 12(Suppl. 1), pages 159–182-1.
    3. Azis, Iwan J., 2013. "Inadequate Regional Financial Safety Nets Reflect Complacency," ADBI Working Papers 411, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Kathrin Berensmann & Florence Dafe & Ulrich Volz, 2015. "Developing local currency bond markets for long-term development financing in Sub-Saharan Africa," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(3-4), pages 350-378.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spillovers; contagion; sovereign bond yields and returns; conditional volatility; emerging Asian local currency bond markets; financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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