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Demographic Dividends for India: Evidence and Implications Based on National Transfer Accounts

Author

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  • Ladusingh, Laishram

    (International Institute for Population Sciences)

  • Narayana, M. R.

    (Institute for Social and Economic Change)

Abstract

There is a lack of verifiable evidence on the period and magnitude of the demographic dividends in India, a gap policy makers must address when setting priorities for human resource and capital investment to harvest the economic benefits of the demographic transition currently under way. This study attempts to fill this gap by quantifying the demographic dividends using National Transfer Accounts framework and by indicating their implications for equity. Our analysis projects that income per effective consumer could increase by 24.9% from 2005 to 2035—9.1% from the first demographic dividend and 15.8% from the second demographic dividend—and that the second dividend will be stable up to 2070. However, unless appropriate institutional reforms create an environment conducive to accumulating assets and raising productivity, India will find it difficult to meet the fiscal challenges posed by population aging.

Suggested Citation

  • Ladusingh, Laishram & Narayana, M. R., 2011. "Demographic Dividends for India: Evidence and Implications Based on National Transfer Accounts," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 292, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0292
    Note: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2011/economics-wp-292.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Das, Pranab Kumar & Kar, Saibal, 2016. "Public Expenditure, Demography and Growth: Theory and Evidence from India," IZA Discussion Papers 9721, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Neha Jain & Srinivas Goli, 2022. "Demographic Change and Economic Development in India," Working Papers 2262, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    3. Jain, Neha & Goli, Srinivas, 2021. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India," SocArXiv sd7na, Center for Open Science.
    4. Jain, Neha & Goli, Srinivas, 2021. "Potential demographic dividend for India, 2001 to 2061: A macro-simulation projection using the spectrum model," MPRA Paper 109562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. M. R. Narayana, 2021. "Economic inequality by age and its implications for inequity for living generations in India: evidence based on National Transfer Accounts," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 373-396, June.
    6. William Joe & Atish Kumar Dash & Pradeep Agrawal, 2015. "Demographic Transition, Savings, and Economic Growth in China and India," IEG Working Papers 351, Institute of Economic Growth.
    7. Laishram Ladusingh, 2013. "Financing young and elderly dependents: the case of Indian public policy," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 20(1), pages 121-143, June.
    8. Pranab Kumar Das & Saibal Kar, 2015. "A Study of Demographic and Financial Changes in India," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: José María Fanelli (ed.), Asymmetric Demography and the Global Economy, chapter 0, pages 213-241, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. M. Narayana, 2015. "India’s Age Structure Transition, Sectoral Labor Productivities, and Economic Growth: Evidence and Implications Based on National Transfer Accounts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 34(3), pages 381-415, June.

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