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Past and Future of the Labor Force in Emerging Asian Economies

Author

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  • Jinyoung Kim

    (Korea University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of past changes in the labor force of 12 emerging Asian countries, and attempts to make projections of the labor force in those countries for the period 2010–2030. Results from the regression analysis indicate that the labor force has grown faster than the population, has an inverted U-shape relationship with per capita gross domestic product, and is smaller in more capital-intensive countries. Using extrapolation, the paper predicts that the labor force will increase in all 12 economies during the first 2 decades of the period 2010–2030, but will eventually decline in the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China. The paper also makes projections of the unemployment rate and the average working hours in those economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinyoung Kim, 2010. "Past and Future of the Labor Force in Emerging Asian Economies," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 218, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0218
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ila Patnaik & Madhavi Pundit, 2014. "Is India's Long-Term Trend Growth Declining?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 424, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Patnaik, Ila & Pundit, Madhavi, 2016. "Where is India's Growth Headed?," Working Papers 16/159, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Ila Patnaik, 2016. "Where is India’s Growth Headed?," Working Papers id:8436, eSocialSciences.
    5. Wang, Feng & Liu, Xiying & Nguyen, Tue Anh, 2018. "Evaluating the economic impacts and feasibility of China's energy cap: Based on an Analytic General Equilibrium Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 114-126.
    6. Elke Loichinger & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2018. "Feminising the workforce in ageing East Asia? The potential of skilled female labour in four advanced economies," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 187-215, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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