Food Inflation, Food Security, and Recovery from Learning Loss: Evidence from Developing Asia

Literature links food insecurity to adverse welfare outcomes, including the educational performance of children. This paper investigates whether food insecurity, exacerbated by recent food inflation, has hindered schoolchildren’s recovery from learning loss following coronavirus disease-related school closures. We examine this relationship using household data collected in 2023 from nine countries (Afghanistan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan)—severely affected by food inflation. Our data document high severity of food insecurity and limited perceived learning progress after schools reopened in many countries. Using a novel instrumental variable, the relative severity of food inflation compared to general inflation, we find a causal link between households’ food insecurity and delays in learning progress after schools reopened. This effect is particularly pronounced among schoolchildren in higher grades and those who experienced longer durations of school closure, suggesting that food insecurity hampered recovery from learning loss during the school closure.