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Fuerza de trabajo y envejecimiento poblacional

Author

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  • Parra Polanía, Julián Andrés
  • Ladino Riveros, Juan David

Abstract

Este documento presenta proyecciones de la fuerza laboral (o fuerza de trabajo) en Colombia hasta 2070, en el contexto del cambio demográfico y sus implicaciones económicas. Los cálculos se hacen a partir de microdatos de la Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares (GEIH), proyecciones poblacionales del DANE y estimaciones de la CEPAL sobre la evolución futura de la fuerza laboral colombiana hasta 2050. Adicionalmente, se consideran escenarios alternativos que incorporan la reciente disminución de la tasa de nacimientos en el país. Con base en las proyecciones originales de población total del DANE, la fuerza de trabajo comenzaría a disminuir a partir del año 2054. No obstante, en los escenarios alternativos, el comienzo de esta reducción se anticiparía alrededor de 10 años, ocurriendo entre 2043 y 2045. En todos los escenarios alternativos, la fuerza de trabajo continuará creciendo a una tasa superior a la de la población total durante un par de décadas más.

Suggested Citation

  • Parra Polanía, Julián Andrés & Ladino Riveros, Juan David, 2025. "Fuerza de trabajo y envejecimiento poblacional," Working papers 111, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:rie:riecdt:111
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fuerza laboral; envejecimiento poblacional; cambio demográfico;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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