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Climate Change, Directed Innovation, and Energy Transition: The Long-run Consequences of the Shale Gas Revolution

Author

Listed:
  • Daron Acemoglu

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • David Hemous

    (University of Zurich)

  • Lint Barrage

    (Brown University)

  • Philippe Aghion

    (LSE)

Abstract

The shale gas revolution can potentially reduce CO2 emissions in the short-run in countries which depend heavily on coal. Yet, it may also discourage innovation in green technologies, leading to lower emissions in the long-run. We document that the shale gas revolution was accompanied by a collapse in innovation in green electricity. We build a model of directed technical change where energy is produced using coal, and/or natural gas, and/or a green source of energy. We derive conditions under which, as a result of the above trade-off, the shale gas revolution reduces emissions in the short-run but increases emissions in the long-run. We then use data on electricity production to calibrate the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Daron Acemoglu & David Hemous & Lint Barrage & Philippe Aghion, 2019. "Climate Change, Directed Innovation, and Energy Transition: The Long-run Consequences of the Shale Gas Revolution," 2019 Meeting Papers 1302, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:1302
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    Cited by:

    1. Burda, Michael C. & Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold, 2024. "Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Price-Driven Growth in a Solow-Swan Economy with an Environmental Limit," IZA Discussion Papers 16771, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2021. "The Economic Geography of Global Warming," 2021: Trade and Environmental Policies: Synergies and Rivalries, December 12-14, San Diego, CA, Hybrid 339385, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    3. Ralf Martin & Dennis Verhoeven, 2022. "Knowledge spillovers from clean and emerging technologies in the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1834, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Georgii Riabov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2021. "Policy with stochastic hysteresis," Papers 2104.10225, arXiv.org.
    5. Martijn A. Boermans & Maurice Bun & Yasmine van der Straten, 2024. "Funding the Fittest? Pricing of Climate Transition Risk in the Corporate Bond Market," Working Papers 797, DNB.
    6. Nicholas Stern & Anna Valero, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," CEP Discussion Papers dp1773, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Nicholas Stern & Anna Valero, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," POID Working Papers 008, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Simon Dietz & Bruno Lanz, 2019. "Growth and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Long Run," CESifo Working Paper Series 7986, CESifo.
    9. Per Krusell & Tony Smith, 2022. "Climate Change Around the World," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2342, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Jonathan T. Hawkins-Pierot & Katherine R. H. Wagner, 2023. "Technology Lock-In and Costs of Delayed Climate Policy," Working Papers 23-33, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Kurtyka, Oliwia & Ollivier, Hélène, 2022. "Take a ride on the (not so) green side: How do CDM projects affect Indian manufacturing firms’ environmental performance?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    12. Ralf Martin & Dennis Verhoeven, 2022. "Knowledge spillovers from clean and emerging technologies in the UK," POID Working Papers 053, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Benedict Probst & Simon Touboul & Matthieu Glachant & Antoine Dechezleprêtre, 2021. "Global trends in the invention and diffusion of climate change mitigation technologies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1077-1086, November.
    14. Ahmet Koseoglu & Ali Gokhan Yucel & Recep Ulucak, 2022. "Green innovation and ecological footprint relationship for a sustainable development: Evidence from top 20 green innovator countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 976-988, October.
    15. Kosuke Aoki & Jouchi Nakajima & Masato Takahashi & Tomoyuki Yagi & Kotone Yamada, "undated". "Energy Efficiency in Japan: Developments in the Business and Household Sectors, and Implications for Carbon Neutrality," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    16. Stern, Nicholas & Valero, Anna, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    17. Jonathan T. Hawkins-Pierot & Katherine R. H. Wagner, 2022. "Technology Lock-In and Optimal Carbon Pricing," CESifo Working Paper Series 9762, CESifo.
    18. Laura Nowzohour, 2021. "Can Adjustments Costs in Research Derail the Transition to Green Growth ?," CIES Research Paper series 67-2021, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    19. David Popp & Jacquelyn Pless & Ivan Haščič & Nick Johnstone, 2020. "Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the Energy Sector," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, pages 175-248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Aïd, René & Bahlali, Mohamed & Creti, Anna, 2023. "Green innovation downturn: The role of imperfect competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    21. Zacharias Sautner & Laurence Van Lent & Grigory Vilkov & Ruishen Zhang, 2023. "Firm‐Level Climate Change Exposure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1449-1498, June.
    22. Eugenie Dugoua & Todd D. Gerarden, 2023. "Induced Innovation, Inventors, and the Energy Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 10700, CESifo.
    23. Javier Moreno & Juan Pablo Medina & Rodrigo Palma-Behnke, 2023. "Latin America’s Renewable Energy Impact: Climate Change and Global Economic Consequences," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-48, December.
    24. Stern, Nicholas & Sivropoulos-Valero, Anna Valero, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114385, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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