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Real GDP Forecasts by International Organisations

Author

Listed:
  • Martin McCarthy

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Umberto Collodel

    (Central Bank of Malta)

  • Prakash Loungani

    (Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

We study forecasts for real gross domestic product growth by international organisations. These forecasts influence policy decisions by international organisations and national governments, and receive significant attention from the private sector. First, we compare the accuracy of forecasters and test the rationality of forecasts using a large dataset of forecasts by four international organisations (the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the European Commission and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and private-sector forecasts. Second, we derive a new decomposition of differences in forecast accuracy into contributions from disagreement and the accuracy of the average forecast. Finally, we present theoretical results and empirical evidence on two explanations for the rejection of forecast rationality: the use of conditioning assumptions and the practice of making modal forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin McCarthy & Umberto Collodel & Prakash Loungani, 2026. "Real GDP Forecasts by International Organisations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2026-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2026-05
    DOI: 10.47688/rdp2026-05
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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