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Inflation (mis)perceptions in the euro area

Author

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  • Francisco Craveiro Dias
  • António Rua
  • Cláudia Duarte

Abstract

There has been a growing interest on inflation perceptions in the euro area, in particular, following the euro cash changeover. It has been pointed out that a gap emerged between observed and perceived inflation since the introduction of the euro notes and coins. Such a statement relies on the fact that inflation perceptions, measured by the well-known balance statistic from the European Commission's consumer survey, hiked after January 2002 and remained high thereafter, as opposed to the observed inflation, which has remained fairly stable. In this paper, we discuss the issue of inflation perceptions measurement, by comparing the balance statistic with an alternative refined measure, which is computed using the probability method. We argue that the balance statistic should be used carefully, as it can induce to misleading conclusions. In fact, we provide, for both euro area and country level, evidence showing that, using the proposed alternative measure, the breakdown in the relationship between observed and perceived inflation did not occur at the time of the euro cash changeover.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Craveiro Dias & António Rua & Cláudia Duarte, 2007. "Inflation (mis)perceptions in the euro area," Working Papers w200715, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200715
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bart Hobijn & Federico Ravenna & Andrea Tambalotti, 2006. "Menu Costs at Work: Restaurant Prices and the Introduction of the Euro," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(3), pages 1103-1131.
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    7. Paolo Angelini & Francesco Lippi, 2007. "Did Prices Really Soar after the Euro Cash Changeover? Evidence from ATM Withdrawals," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Forsells, Magnus & Kenny, Geoff, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0163, European Central Bank.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomasz Lyziak, 2010. "Measuring consumer inflation expectations in Europe and examining their forward-lookingness," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 57th ISI Session, Durban, August 2009, volume 33, pages 155-201 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2011. "The Formation Of Inflation Perceptions: Some Empirical Facts For European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 155-188, May.
    3. Francisco Dias & Cláudia Duarte & António Rua, 2010. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: are consumers rational?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 591-607, September.
    4. Tomasz Łyziak, 2013. "Non-Positive Scaling Factor in Probability Quantification Methods: Deriving Consumer Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the Whole Euro Area and Ireland," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(1), pages 77-98, March.
    5. Dennis Bonam & Gavin Goy, 2017. "Home biased expectations and macroeconomic imbalances in a monetary union," DNB Working Papers 556, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Arnold, Ivo J.M. & Soederhuizen, Beau, 2016. "Internal or external devaluation? What does the EC Consumer Survey tell us about macroeconomic adjustment in the Euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 88-103.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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