IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using the First Principal Component as a Core Inflation Indicator


  • José Ferreira Machado
  • Carlos Robalo Marques
  • Pedro Duarte Neves
  • Afonso Gonçalves da Silva


This paper investigates the consequences of non-stationarity for the principal components analysis and suggests a data transformation that allows obtaining smoother series for the first principal component to be used as a core inflation indicator. The paper also introduces a theoretical model, which allows interpreting core inflation as a common stochastic trend to the year-on-year rates of change of the price indices of the basic CPI items. Finally, it is shown that the first principal component computed in real time meets the evaluation criteria introduced in Marques et al. (2000).

Suggested Citation

  • José Ferreira Machado & Carlos Robalo Marques & Pedro Duarte Neves & Afonso Gonçalves da Silva, 2001. "Using the First Principal Component as a Core Inflation Indicator," Working Papers w200109, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200109

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Daniel Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques & J.M.C.Santos Silva, 2006. "Measuring the Importance of the Uniform Nonsynchronization Hypothesis," Working Papers w200603, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Hendry, David F & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    4. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Forecasting ECB monetary policy: accuracy is (still) a matter of geography," Discussion Papers 2006/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. Florin O. Bilbiie & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2008. "What Accounts for the Changes in U.S. Fiscal Policy Transmission?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1439-1470, October.
    6. Romain Duval & Jørgen Elmeskov, 2005. "The Effects of EMU on Structural Reforms in Labour and Product Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 438, OECD Publishing.
    7. Philippe Michel & Leopold Von Thadden & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2010. "Debt Stabilizing Fiscal Rules," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(5), pages 923-941, October.
    8. Michael Ehrmann, 2011. "Inflation Developments and Perceptions after the Euro Cash Changeover," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 33-58, February.
    9. Peltonen, Tuomas, 2006. "Are emerging market currency crises predictable? A test," Working Paper Series 571, European Central Bank.
    10. Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "Rational inattention, inflation developments and perceptions after the euro cash changeover," Working Paper Series 588, European Central Bank.
    11. Koeppl, Thorsten & Monnet, Cyril & Temzelides, Ted, 2008. "A dynamic model of settlement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 233-246, September.
    12. Lamo, Ana & Messina, Julián & Wasmer, Etienne, 2006. "Are Specific Skills an Obstacle to Labour Market Adjustment? Theory and an Application to the EU Enlargement," CEPR Discussion Papers 5503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2006. "A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models," Working Paper Series 586, European Central Bank.
    14. Gaspar, Ví­tor & Afonso, António, 2006. "Excess burden and the cost of inefficiency in public services provision," Working Paper Series 601, European Central Bank.
    15. Kok, Christoffer & Werner, Thomas, 2006. "Bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: a cross country comparison," Working Paper Series 580, European Central Bank.
    16. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
    17. Kremer, Jana & Rodrigues Braz, Cláudia & Brosens, Teunis & Langenus, Geert & Momigliano, Sandro & Spolander, Mikko, 2006. "A disaggregated framework for the analysis of structural developments in public finances," Working Paper Series 579, European Central Bank.
    18. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2006. "Estimating multi-country VAR models," Working Paper Series 603, European Central Bank.
    19. Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress," Working Paper Series 573, European Central Bank.
    20. Julián Messina & Giovanna Vallanti, 2007. "Job Flow Dynamics and Firing Restrictions: Evidence from Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(521), pages 279-301, June.
    21. Guido Schwerdt & Jarkko Turunen, 2007. "Growth In Euro Area Labor Quality," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(4), pages 716-734, December.
    22. Fisher, Timothy C. G. & Konieczny, Jerzy D., 2000. "Synchronization of price changes by multiproduct firms: evidence from Canadian newspaper prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 271-277, September.
    23. Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 587, European Central Bank.
    24. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 353-387, April.
    25. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Manganelli, Simone & Hördahl, Peter & Kadareja, Arjan, 2006. "The impact of the euro on financial markets," Working Paper Series 598, European Central Bank.
    26. Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2006. "Non-linear dynamics in the euro area demand for M1," Working Paper Series 592, European Central Bank.
    27. Rinaldi, Laura & Sanchis-Arellano, Alicia, 2006. "Household debt sustainability: what explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis," Working Paper Series 570, European Central Bank.
    28. Manganelli, Simone, 2006. "A new theory of forecasting," Working Paper Series 584, European Central Bank.
    29. Livio Stracca, 2007. "A Speed Limit Monetary Policy Rule for the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 21-41, March.
    30. Aucremanne, Luc & Dhyne, Emmanuel, 2004. "How frequently do prices change? Evidence based on the micro data underlying the Belgian CPI," Working Paper Series 331, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Fröhling, Annette & Lommatzsch, Kirsten, 2011. "Output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area: Indirect evidence from disaggregated consumer prices," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them," IMF Working Papers 06/97, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Frank Leung & Kevin Chow & Simon Chan, 2010. "Measures of trend inflation in Hong Kong," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 177-200 Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w200109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (DEE-NTDD). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.