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Measures of Trend Inflation in Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Frank Leung

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Kevin Chow

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Simon Chan

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

The concept of trend inflation is crucial for macroeconomic analysis and policy formulation by central banks. In this paper, we compare measures of trend inflation in Hong Kong estimated by the exclusion and statistical methods. Our findings suggest that the trend inflation estimated by the exclusion method (by excluding basic food, energy and other volatile items) and the principal component technique have strong predictive power on future changes in headline CPI or PCE inflation. Evaluation results based on qualitative and quantitative criteria suggest that the two estimation methods have their own strengths and weaknesses, and none of the methods has clear absolute advantage over the other for measuring trend inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Leung & Kevin Chow & Simon Chan, 2009. "Measures of Trend Inflation in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0907, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0907
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    File URL: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/research/working/pdf/HKMAWP09_07_full.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramon Moreno, 2010. "Some issues in measuring and tracking prices in emerging market exonomies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 13-51, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Chen, Cong & Zhang, Su & Zhang, Guohui & Bogus, Susan M. & Valentin, Vanessa, 2014. "Discovering temporal and spatial patterns and characteristics of pavement distress condition data on major corridors in New Mexico," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 148-158.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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